Can Green Politics Rescue the Tories?

"It hasn't been a good week for David Cameron" has become, over the summer, an increasingly common statement. And last week, alas, wasn't one to break the mould. Not only did he have to put a brave face on the appointment of two of his MPs as 'advisers' to Gordon Brown, but one of his former party Vice-Treasurers has now joined them. Brown is nothing if not thorough in his determination to denude the Tories of supporters. Johann Eliasch was a significant backer for the Tories, but the promise of more direct involvement in the formulation of environmental policies proved too tempting. After all, if you want to change things, government is the place to be.

Today, however, has seen a bit of a green surge on the part of the Tories. One of his many policy groups has reported back, recommending a range of tax incentives to go green. This is a difficult tight-rope walk for Mr. Cameron. On the one hand, his green credentials are at the heart of his attempt to modernise the Tory party and make it electable again. On the other, one of the Tories' most clearly defined policy positions is against high taxation. How he balances these two, and whether he can start to produce an upswing against Mr. Brown, still remains to be seen.

Newsnight and Gordon Brown

Newsnight had a bit of fun at Gordon Brown's expense today. David Cameron has called for a debate, Brown has refused. So far, so predictable. Cue the Newsnight report which retrieved a 20 year old bit of television featuring a young MP called Gordon Brown, busy attacking then PM Margaret Thatcher for her refusal to hold a debate with opposition leader Neil Kinnock. 'So what's changed in those twenty years?' asked the Newsnight man at Brown's press conference today, to general laughter. Oh, and another fascinating feature of the archival tv segment was the big haired young presenter - one J. Paxman esquire.

Cameron attacked by a shadow

Michael Ancram has never been one of the better known Tory MPs. He's fought for the leadership, coming bottom of the poll, and as Shadow Foreign Secretary, such was his low profile that he became known as the man who put the 'shadow' into shadow foreign secretary. Admittedly, those were quiet times, as then PM Tony Blair determined on an invasion of Iraq, presented dodgy dossiers etc. But it is this same Ancram who has suddenly decided to present a 30 page pamphlet attacking Cameron for failing to adopt a more Thatcherite legacy, and generally proving to be another unhelpful news item for Mr. Cameron. Ancram's motives are obscure, but his quick dash into the limelight is unlikely to have any more impact than his longer stint as shadow foreign secretary.

Boris' Election

The Tories may be being rattled by thoughts of a general election, but one election they are probably looking forward to, if only because it promises humour, colour and a clash of titanic egos, is the London mayoral election. Boris launched his campaign today in front of a fairly modest looking audience, comprised largely of people who have signed up to his facebook campaign. His promotional video started in mute fashion as well - there was Boris talking, but no actual sound was coming out his mouth (a situation some Conservative strategists might prefer to maintain). Nonetheless, the Tories' most recognisable public figure is now in the running - even if, at present, it is simply for the actual party nomination.

Should he get his party's call he will, of course, be up against the arch manipulator himself, Ken Livingstone, with likely third candidate interest being provided for the Lib Dems' by SGS's very own ex-pupil, former police chief Brian Paddick.

Anyway, the Boris campaign website is here, and it includes the promotional video - with sound fully active. Watch it and see if you can listen without wanting to laugh; then ask whether you see Boris as a politician or a comedian.

Are the Tories rattled by Election Fever?

What a difference a leader makes! Just over two months ago the Tories, under their bright, newish young leader, still seemed a strong prospect. Yes, they'd had a wobble over grammar schools, but they were in better fettle than Labour and David Cameron seemed a far more positive bet than tarnished war leader Tony Blair. Even better, Blair's inevitable successor was an unsmiling Scot who seemed utterly ill suited to modern media politics. Well, I guess everyone gets to be wrong a few times, but there was hardly a single Tory adviser who could have predicted the Brown 'bounce' that has so wrong-footed them over the summer.

Gordon Brown is undoubtedly enjoying bating the Tories with that potent power of an incumbent Prime Minister - the power to hold an election when he chooses. The enjoyment will only be the greater for the remarkable reputation Brown has managed to acquire as PM. Simply by a skilfull performance as the anti-Blair, he has won plaudits and popularity that have made David Cameron look, well, rather last year. Then there's today's news about Brown's acquisition of a couple of Tory backbenchers, and one Lib Dem, as government advisers. He really does look like the experienced leader of a bipartisan government of all the talents.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have both sought to put the best possible gloss on their MPs' new roles, but it sounds a bit like justifying a decision the individuals concerned had already determined to make. Patrick Mercer is a distinctly odd choice for Brown as security adviser, and it must be a sign of his annoyance with Dave that he bothered to take the role at all. John Bercow is an altogether more thoughtful MP, and, given his own political journey from right-wing student gauleiter to left-ish Tory guru, it is less surprising that he has accepted Brown's blandishments. But the overall effect is what matters for the cunning PM - he has once again set the cat among the Tory pigeons - adding a quick kick at some Lib Dem ones for good measure - and shown that he remains in full command of the political agenda.

So what are Cameron's chances? I can't see much money being laid on him becoming Prime Minister next year at present, but politics is nothing if not fickle. Gordon Brown, for all his current mischief making, is unlikely to forego his famed caution for a snap election this year, and the longer he remains in office the less entrenched his poll lead is likely to become. David Cameron, meanwhile, is starting to firm up his political message. Having significantly altered the perception of the Tory party over the past year or two, he has now started looking towards distinctive Tory policies on tax and law and order to put distance between himself and Brown. His policy building needs to be carefully undertaken, however, given that his predecessors are haunted by the fact that they too tried to take the Tory party back to the centre before surrendering it to its right-wing. Cameron hasn't done that yet, but one of Brown's calculations must be that he might be able to panic Cameron back into the thrice-losing Tory right-wing laager.

And so, as a new academic year dawns, with Parliament still a month away from its return, the political agenda is already hotting up and proving, as ever, that politics is the most unpredictable of activities.

Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown's on holiday. Not in Italy, or the Vrigin Islands; he's spending a few days in Dorset, then heading to the family home in Scotland. Yet another instance of his difference from his predecessor, and another ratchet turned in his moulding himself into the British people's affections. I have to confess that, so far, and despite myself, I have warmed considerably to Brown. I liked his cancelling of the supercasino policy. I thought his first cabinet was weighty and talented. I preferred his measured, unhysterical response to the airport attacks at the outset of his premiership. I like his frequent use of the Commons for his statements. I liked his businesslike, besuited meeting with George Bush. There has, in fact, not been much to take offence at. He comes across as a professional premier, eschewing showiness, concentrating on the job, and revealing a clear, principled basis for his work. What is most obvious is that what makes him appealing at present, is that he seems the very antithesis of the unlamented Blair. This is a trick that the Cameroonies have been slow to pick up on, and it is costing them.

Gordon Brown may or may not call an election in October - chances are probably still more against than for - but he has so far shown the Labour Party that he is potentially a winner, and given the Tories little rest as they re-plan their strategy over summer.

Shut for the Summer

As if you hadn't guessed, I've stopped blogging for the summer! CCF camp was great, the end of term performances were excellent, and now summer venues call. A and AS level results are out August 16th - hope it's a celebration day! Will start blogging in earnest in September, over what may well be an election year in 2008 (May, anyone??). Ciao!