'Bring Back Vince'

At the time of writing the parliamentary sketches haven't appeared on the newspaper websites yet, so we await their all important verdict on Nick Clegg's underwhelming debut as Lib Dem leader at Prime Minister's Questions today. He didn't mess up, but he didn't stun either. There were, apparently, shouts of 'Bring Back Vince' from the Tory and Labour benches and actually, worthy though Clegg's question about fuel prices leading to 25,000 deaths might have been, he still lacked a bit of the humour and lightness of touch that served his predecessor well. But humour was at a premium today. Gordon Brown raged his way through PMQ's, asking almost as many questions of David Cameron as Cameron was asking of him (perhaps they could re-name this Leader of the Opposition Questions?), and Cameron tried some humour towards Clegg, and then more savage humour towards Brown, but it all came across as just rather bad-tempered. Where's the love??

New Hampshire Screws Media

I was jolted awake some time after 6 by the very voice of the devil talking about hell. When I'd recovered my sanity, I realised that the voice belonged to Senator John McCain. The Today programme was broadcasting his speech about Osama Bin Laden - McCain proclaims, lest anyone be in any doubt, that as president he 'would chase Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell'. Excellent. Because what we need is a president who is prepared to get a little more aggressive out there in the Middle East.

Actually, McCain, to be fair, is one of the better Republican candidates (I know, I know - that really is like suggesting Posh is one of the more intelligent Spice Girls, but there we go) and his win in New Hampshire was every bit as exciting as the astonishing Hillary Clinton turnaround. Well, actually, more a sort of turn-and-turn-again-around, since Clinton was well in the lead, then behind after Iowa, then back in the lead. Americans are nothing if not fickle, and they do love their underdogs. At this rate, every candidate will have a chance to top a poll somewhere; there's definitely space for someone to grab the Alaskan primary.

This is the most open presidential race for about half a century. After getting huge amounts of egg on their face in New Hampshire, the pundits are certainly going to be wary about calling the results. It was great, for instance, to read the 'Sun's' usual crass anti-Hillary slot and fawn all over Obama before they'd got the actual result. There's actually beenm quite a lot of fawning over Obama, even from Tories, as Conservative Home shows in this post. But then, he is an exciting candidate, even if he hasn't quite worked out all his ideas, and both he and Hillary have genuine political star power. For the Republicans, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee are all 'outsider' possibilities; I think Romney is frankly too damaged now though. McCain is a solid 'anti-Bush' Republican for all his hard line on the war, but I think the race is still the Democrats' to lose - 'change' is the most over-used word in the campaign at the moment, but Americans seem desperate for it, and that probably means changing party in the White House as well. Let's see - for all the January excitement, the presidential poll isn't until November. And a mere week is.........well, you should know the rest!

Age is the Thing

John McCain is 71 and is a serious contender for the presidency. Ming Campbell, in his 60s, was seen as being too old to be leader of a party that is unlikely to form a government. The main opposition leader, David Cameron, is 41, as is the Liberal leader, Nick Clegg. Hence, an interesting bit of musing by Newsnight's Michael Crick here about the vagaries of age in politics. To be honest, we should be wary of callow youths seeking office before they've experienced the world in all its glory. Hitler was 44 when he became Chancellor - a real advert for virulent youth, and he was of course the ultimate youth worshipper with his interminable youth brigades. But who was it who brought him low? Winston Churchill, 65 when he became Prime Minister. Still a bit young, but needs must.

Brown's new Aide

One of Gordon Brown's great boasts, after the era of spin, was that he wouldn't succumb to dark arts himself. After all, here was a man who it was very difficult to spin, and whose great strength would be that what you see is what you get. But prime ministers need help from whatever quarter they can get it, and the PM today announced the appointment of his new 'Principal Political Adviser'. And the lucky winner? Step forward media and PR man Stephen Carter, straight from his post as CEO of the, er, PR firm Brunswick. They don't get much more senior than that in the spinning world! And you can see here for the inevitable Guido Fawkes diatribe!

A Tale of Three Elections

In the Russian state of Georgia, where democracy is a new and fragile thing, the snap election called by President Saakashvili looks as if it has been conducted fairly - according to the legion of foreign election observers - and has resulted in a victory for the reforming Mr. Saakashvili. As such, it marks a useful milestone on Georgia's road to the democratic community of nations, and potentially lifts her up as a lodestar to surrounding nations in the tortured Caucasus region. (The Economist comment prior to the election result is an illuminating one, and is here.)

In America, the candidates had one of their vaunted television debates today, and all eyes are on New Hampshire to see if the weather will blow the same way as it did in Iowa. Hillary Clinton is falling in the polls as the Obama bounce takes hold, but even if she should fail to gain victory in New Hampshire, it would still, I think, be too early to write her off. These two caucuses/primaries count for nuts when it comes to actual delegates; it's the 'big mo' that's crucial. For the Republicans, McCain is the apparent 'Comeback Kid' of this year's campaign. He seemed dead in the water last summer; now he's headed for victory in New Hampshire. Go figure.

Finally, there's Kenya. As already noted, there couldn't be a clearer test case of how to abuse an election and ruin a country. Although there is some progress on the political front - opposition leader Odinga has hinted that he may agree to be part of a coalition government with President Kibaki - the net result of Kibaki's corruption now has been to see food convoys head into Kenya. That's the thing about elections. When they're good, they offer the people a voice. when they're bad, they are capable of casting the people into despair.

TIA....

In the film 'Blood Diamond', Danny Kruger (played by Leonardo DiCaprio) and his erstwhile employer, the Colonel, coin the acronym 'TIA' - 'This Is Africa' - by way of justifying unjusitifiable events. Murder, corruption, mayhem, slaughter - they are all seemingly inexplicable, except for the fact that 'TIA'.

I was reminded of this when hearing about the Kenyan election debacle. Yet another power-hungry, corrupt African political 'big man' wants to hold on to power and the wealth that goes with it, and in consequence he is prepared to cast his country to the dogs. The inevitable response to Kibaki's stolen election was violence in the streets. One BBC image showed a man being pursued through town; the journalist informed us he had been hacked to death seconds later by his pursuers. TIA.

In a continent that contains Robert Mugabe, we might be inclined to dismiss Kibaki as pretty low level on the corruption scale, but his greed has turned what seemed one of the more successful African nations into another of that continent's typical disaster zones. The Economist have a shrewd leader here, but the fact is no-one can help the Africans except the Africans themselves - and too many of them are unwilling or unable to do so. Roll on more slaughter, tribal violence, poverty and anarchy. After all, TIA.

Ready for Change in America?

The presidential election isn't until November, but the first electoral shots have now been fired. The Iowa caucus remains far too individual, small and, frankly, unrepresentative to stand as an indicator of American opinion, but it does provide momentum to the lucky winning candidates. And in both parties the winning candidates were the outsiders - former Baptist minister and small state governor (Arkansas - the Clinton state!) Mike Huckabee for the Republicans, and black first-term senator Barack Obama for the Democrats. The result is particularly galling, perhaps, for Hillary Clinton, who thought she had a lock on the Democrat nomination way back in 2007. But both she and the Republican front-runner, Mitt Romney, have suffered from campaigns that have been almost too calculating. Clinton's political positions have been varied and contrasting and it has been difficult to establish just what she does mean for the future of America. Experience and change are not exactly comfortable partners, and yet that was precisely what Clinton was offering the electorate. Barack Obama, by contrast, has been consistently fresh and exciting, and preaches clear messages - none more so than his 'troops out' approach to Iraq.

Well, in this longest of democratic elections, Iowa really is only a small first step, but it's provided an immediate upset and sparked renewed interest in the first presidential contest in over half a century where neither party boasts a sitting president or vice-president in the running. For some immediate analysis, the Spectator's James Forsyth has been blogging away madly on the Spectator's Coffee House blog; he is distinctly pessimistic about Hillary's chances, whilst acknowledging that it is obviously too early to write off such a well financed and experienced campaigner. Now, on to New Hampshire, where in the Republican camp John McCain may provide the next upset. I love American politics!