Statements of the Obvious.....

The Institute for Public Policy Reserach used to be regarded as one of the key New Labour think-tanks, thinking the things that others didn't dare to. So how about today's stunning report, which looks at teaching and concludes that better teachers can get higher grades out of students than poor teachers! I don't know about the level of intellectual rigour required for teachers in today's climate, but I'm beginning to wonder if think-tanks aren't picking up a few duds themselves!!

The report apparently also says teachers should be given 20 days training a year. A good idea, once you've dealt with the currently absymal state of teacher training. We have a couple of INSET days coming up which will offer nothing more useful than government initiatives poorly presented, and which could be better focused on offering revision sessions to exam classes. And I can well remember attending several days on one of the government's flagship training courses (run by something called the National College for School Leadership) and wanting to go and pick salt grains in Siberia rather than suffer any more of their extraordinarily low-level 'training'.

Mayor Boris!

To the fury of the left, Boris Johnson, the man they all thought was just a joke, has won the mayoral election. It's what makes democracy exciting. No-one would, at the outset, have predicted a Johnson victory, but during the course of the campaign a general schadenfreude with Ken Livingstone, coupled with the disaster that is, at present, the Labour government, combined to give a newly disciplined Boris the edge, and then a comfortable victory. He was way ahead on first preferences, and then the second preferences just confirmed his victory.

In victory, Boris's speech was magnanimous indeed. Not everyone would agree with his generous assessment of Ken Livingstone; perhaps it was true of his first term, but not of his second. But it was right to commend the man who was London's first elected mayor. Boris, too, showed he understood that his election was not ringing endorsement either of himself or the Tories. He said that he knew people's pencils had hovered above his name before voting; and that his victory had not turned London into a Conservative city. These were shrewd observations, and if he can maintain this sense of holding an office on trust from the people, and put his undoubtedly able team to work on London's behalf, then some people might need to eat their words in four years time, and he might even get a second term.

Brian Paddick, incidentally, gave a short speech which included his own tribute to Ken, but was noticeably lacking any congratulations to Boris. There are rumours that Boris is thinking of using Paddick to advise on police matters - I wonder if the man's lack of grace might make him think again.

There is, meanwhile, no shortage of advice to the Labour Party about what to do now (see the Matthew Parris article noted on the right), but Danny Finkelstein has some useful words of advice to the Tories too.

Rumour Has It

Danny Finkelstein of the 'Times' is busy updating his comment blog with rumours of the London mayoral result. Tories are all very chirpy apparently, with Conservative HQ looking forward to a Boris victory of between 4 and 8%.

Brown's Woes Pile Up

Not only is he having to put a brave face on a night of disastrous results, but Gordon Brown has just lost his hand-picked candidate for the job of Labour's General Secretary. Sky News reports that David Pitt-Watson, a millionaire city high-flier, has backed out for fear of being tainted in the ongoing investigation about cash for honours. He doesn't want to risk his own millions should Inspector Knacker close in on Labour party operatives.

Oh well, at least Gordon has plenty of ex-councillors who will be willing to step into the breach.

Blue Dawn?

It would be churlish not to allow David Cameron his day of triumph. He took over a party that looked as if it had become permanently unelectable outside a few privileged enclaves, and has seen it achieve ultimate electable status. 44% of the vote - against the dismal showings of his two rivals - in last night's locals is certainly nothing to be sneered at. Thatcher was getting that sort of percentage in her election winning prime. Gordon Brown, meanwhile, has presided over Labour's worst performance in decades - even lower than Michael Foot's cataclysmic 1983 election. Worse for Brown, he is being increasingly tainted as the John Major of New Labour (see, for example, a comment on the post below). As for Clegg, well, while his party performed well enough in his own city of Sheffield, his inability to take it to a level of support beyond that which the much derided Menzies Campbell obtained hardly suggests a dynamic, frontier grabbing new leadership.

However, Cameron would be well advised not to spend too long on his celebrations. Despite last night, his task is strewn with problems.

First, he must be at least a little nervous about the capability of his new controlling Tory councillors to deliver effective leadership. The Tory party has been haemorhagging members for years now, with the result that too many of their councillors and council candidates are either hugely inexperienced, or represent some of the less attractive aspects of 1980s and 90s conservatism. For the Conservatives to keep Bury, and Southampton et al for more than a year or two will require real drive and discipline on the part of these new leaders.

Second, while Cameron is the first leader since Thatcher to see his party win seats in northern redoubts, they remain far and few between. The great urban breakthrough didn't occur. Margaret Thatcher may have won three elections in a row, but most Tories have never accepted the reality of the long-term damage her leadership did to her own party. The Thatcherite dominance saw the party's representation shrink away from cities and provinces into an insular, rural southern laager. Not only that, but the memory of Thatcherism is strong, and divisive, enough all these years later to still turn people off the idea of voting Tory. Be Labour ever so bad, many voters would never see Toryism as an appropriate alternative.

Third, and this is the Matthew Parris point, how ready is Cameron for government. Really. His policies remain a largely incoherent mix, and his leading spokesmen, with a very few exceptions, seem to be limited, uninspiring people. Winning power, be it locally or, potentially in a couple of years, nationally, will be a triumph for Cameron. Holding power will be far more difficult, and far more crucial. If the next Tory government fails to exercise power effectively and inclusively, it could well damn the Tories into opposition for far longer than 13 years.

Mayor Boris?

At this early stage on election night (11.35pm) the - admittedly biased - website Conservative Home has already done it's own assessment of the day's voting, and called the London Mayoral election for Boris Johnson. I gather from Sky News that we may not actually find out the real result until late afternoon tomorrow, while the BBC's News 24 anchor says the London count is so 'tight' that nothing leaks out about likely results. This could make the evening rather duller, although I should dutifully note that much of the rest of the country are voting for a range of local council seats, electing councillors who not even their neighbours would recognise in the local Asda.

Boris Attack

The Day of Reckoning! It's the third ever mayoral election, it's a lot more exciting than the first two, and for the first time a Tory candidate has a chance of winning. The last time the Tories controlled London was back in the mid-70s when the Greater London Council was under the leadership of Tory councillor Sir Horace Cutler. He was defeated in the 1980 election which saw Labour's London leader Andrew Macdonald win...only to be ousted as Labour leader within 24 hours of victory by a young left-wing upstart called Ken Livingstone.

Boris clearly generates real hatred on the left, nowhere more so than in the pages of the 'Guardian' which has given him the tribute of a whole section entitled 'Stop Boris'. The lead article is by Zoe Williams, and is so gloriously intemperate, out-tabloiding the tabloids in its outraged, street-style language that we had great fun analysing it in politics today. Apparently Boris is only loved because of his floppy hair and 'sodding' bicycle. With penetrating analysis like that, no wonder the Guardian doesn't need to bother with facts. And one fact, incidentally, that eludes so many people, is that Boris never wrote the Liverpool article in the Spectator for which he apologised so profusely. As editor, he took the wrap for the unsigned piece, but it was actually written by right-wing columnist Simon Heffer. Which makes Heffer's own spluttering attack on Boris in the Telegraph all the more inexplicable. Heffer himself, of course, lay low and never openly admitted authorship of the offending piece.

Anyway, a man who alienates both a left-wing harridan like Zoe Williams and a right-wing blimp like Simon Heffer must be doing something right. More to the point, overpaid journalistic clap-trap notwithstanding, will Boris win? Well, in a few hours we should know, but I think I'm sticking with the view expressed today that he'll win on second preferences. Can't wait!!!