Crewe's Verdict

There is little to add to the acres of comment about the stunning Tory win at Crewe and Nantwich. In some ways it is difficult to work up yet more excitement over what is undoubtedly a dramatic political event given its predictability. We may not have expected the Conservative candidate to get a majority even larger than that awarded at the last election to St. Gwynneth, but we certainly expected him to win. And win he has. Big time.

I had a couple of texts from a Labour supporting ex-student last night who, for presumably masochistic reasons, had decided to head up to Crewe. The first, early in the evening, announced that things were 'grim'. The second, much later, abandoned reason in favour of more anglo-saxon comments about Labour's chances. It was as eloquent an expression of Labour's failure as anything I've read.

The message for Brown is obvious (and I don't think we need to waste time analysing the message for the Liberals). But what is the message for Cameron? Very positively, he has finally won a by-election off Labour. The last Tory to do this, before she was in government, was Margaret Thatcher. The impact of Thatcher's electoral shadow since 1978 has been such that every Tory leader, including herself, has struggled at by-elections. Why? Because the Tories have been so viscerally hated. That's Thatcher's legacy, but Cameron may now be feeling vindicated and triumphant at having laid to rest that mendacious Tory ghost. It's OK to vote Tory again - they are back in the game of proper vote-winning politics.

But Cameron himself has tacitly acknowledged the task ahead with his relatively low-key victory comments. He has resisted the temptation to gloat. He knows the Tories have achieved stage 1 of their come-back, but stage 2, the definition of workable, appealing policies, is still very much a work in progress. You only had to listen to George Osborne this morning on the 'Today' programme, wheeling his way round having to explain what the Tory tax policy was, to realise the significance of the task.

Finally, by-election triumphs don't necessarily equal general election wins. Ask Neil Kinnock. But here there is really worrying news for Brown. Kinnock won by-elections, but no-one could really picture him as prime minister. Looking at Cameron, however, most voters do see a prime minister, even if it is one in the image of Tony Blair.

The Last of the Kennedys

Love them or loathe them, the Kennedy brothers have been amongst the most remarkable trio of politicians in US history. Teddy Kennedy has just been admitted to hospital with a malignant brain tumour, marking perhaps the end game in the original Kennedy story. He is the most tarnished of the three brothers, especially with the mystery surrounding the Chappaquiddick tragedy which resulted in the death of a campaign worker. Nevertheless, Kennedy has, as a senator for over 40 years, proved to be an effective legislator, and an articulate spokesman for the liberal cause in America. His own rhetoric occasionally matched the heights of that of his brothers, no more so than in his speech to the 1980 Democratic convention. His campaign for the nomination - against incumbent president Jimmy Carter - was hugely damaging to his party, but his speech allowed them briefly to forget their woes and remember the soaring heights that politics can aspire to. Kennedy's peroration is below, and worth re-visiting.

Tamsin the Toff

The Labour candidate in Crewe and Nantwich has expended lots of time and leaflets attacking the Tory candidate for being a 'toff'. Apparently, she's the one listed in 'Burke's Peerage', not him.....

Meanwhile, watching the Newsnight programme on the by-election, with its live audience of authentic voters, I'm not sure which is more irritating...Paxman, with his increasingly sneering, self-righteous and hectoring questioning, or the pathetic inability of seasoned politicians (on the panel - Hoon, Gove and Cable) to make adequate responses. Hoon is one of the most wretched Cabinet performers around, weak, spineless and utterly incapable of levelling with anyone, dependent as he is on a dissembling script prepared by Labour HQ. Gove is, at best, an intellectual naive, unable to communicate straightforwardly with voters and patronising interviewers alike, wearing his look of eternal bewilderment, while good old Uncle Vince is trying to get by with as few words as possible lest he undermine his much vaunted credibility. As for the candidates, the Tory didn't turn up (probably the best decision of the evening), while Dunwoody and the carpet-bagging Liberal woman were truly dismal spokeswomen for their parties.

Brown Challenge?

With a potential Labour wipe-out in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election two days away, rumours are beginning to circulate of a a possible leadership challenge to Gordon Brown in its aftermath. The Blairite duo Stephen Byers and Alan Milburn have made sure they have done some high-visibility campaigning in the seat - all the better to launch a challenge themselves? The website Political Betting has this story of a possible Milburn challenge.

Embryos and Pressure Groups

The Human Embryo and Fertilisation Bill is being debated in the Commons at the moment, and one of the more controversial aspects is the amendment being moved by Tory MP Nadine Dorries to lower the abortion limit from 24 weeks to 20 weeks. I have no wish to go into the ins and outs of this super-charged debate, but it is worth noting the assistance given by one particular pressure group to Dorries. The Lawyers Christian Fellowship, headed by Andrea Williams, has been particularly active on this issue and even drafted the amendment for Dorries to move. they have not only been able to access Westminster - and Williams has worked very closely with Dorries - but have also organised protests outside Parliament on this issue. For AS students approaching Paper 1, this represents an excellent current example of the power of pressure groups. For more information on the link between the LCF and Westminster you can read this article by David Modell (who produced a 'Dispatches' programme on the same topic). The article itself has a clear axe to grind, but is useful in noting how the LCF sets about achieving its agenda - classic insider group tactics.

Crowd Pleaser - or Influences on a Prime Minister

After another tawdry weekend where he had to suffer the modern political torture of punishment by memoir, Gordon Brown has shown once again that there is no more effective influence on a prime minister than the perceived direction of public opinion. Thus, his chancellor is instructed to roll out a tax cut to make up for the problems caused by Brown's own earlier budget, while Brown himself seeks to present himself as Vision Man today, notably prioritising schemes for low earners. Not a minute too soon. If he is to go anywhere over the next couple of years he absolutely needs to re-stake out his ground on alleviating poverty, and the elections will have served him a useful purpose if they remind him of this.

The memoirs he can dismiss as the short-lived revelations of political or personal rivals with an axe to grind. We enjoy them, but we don't believe them, and we certainly don't buy them. Today's political sensation is tomorrow's remainder after all. Of more concern is the upcoming Crewe and Nantwich by-election, and we have about a week to see whether Brown's remedial action can rescue the seat for him. I suspect it may not, but if the result goes against him he might now be able to take some comfort from the fact that he can honestly say, "Look, I'm listening, ok?"

Got a Job? Get an old friend in.

Boris Johnson has hit the ground running in his first week as mayor, with eye-catching appointments such as Ray Lewis, his new deputy mayor, and his meeting with New York's Michael Bloomberg yesterday, as well as his attedance at last weekend's Sikh festival. As well as his clearout of Livingstone cronies, he has started to appoint some of his own. His new Director of Communications, Guto Harri, is a former BBC journalist. He seems well qualified for the job and there's no doubt Boris needs an effective spin-meister. But his most important qualification appears to have been that he and Boris go back 20 years, to their time at Oxford together.

As if to really enforce the Oxford point, who's this who's just popped up as David Cameron's new appointment as Chief Executive at Conservative Campaign Headquarters? One Andrew Feldman - very able, I'm sure, but principally qualified as a mate of Cameron's from, yes, Oxford. Never mind Eton, the Oxford network's as strong as ever. Good to know that egalitarianism has its limits. I'm looking forward to the first Bristol-based administration!