Romney's Dig At Newt..."I've Been Married To The Same Woman..."

Really not sure whether front-running Republican hopeful and eternal flip-flopper Mitt Romney has really done his campaign a lot of good with his not so subtle dig at the thrice-married Newt Gingrich in his current campaign ad. One political pundit analyses the vid and concludes that it might help Romney by focusing unforgiving conservative attention on the issue of 'character', but could backfire when the issue of 'stability' quickly translates from personal stability to political stability. There, says 'Allahpundit", Romney quickly sinks and Gingrich becomes most favoured candidate.

But as Gingrich becomes the most likely conservative alternative to Romney, there is some talk that a Gingrich-Obama contest could be a great ideological stand-off, focusing on genuine policy differences and with detailed back-up, rather than just rhetorical generalisations. The 'New Republic' pundit Michael Kazin posits just this situation, noting that Gingrich is determined to challenge Obama to lengthy debates. Policy might just hold the field in this putative contest.

That all assumes Gingrich's oft described 'colourful' private life can be kept off the burner. He might have less trouble from an Obama campaign on that score than from his own conservative supporters - the Washington Post reports continuing questions from Republican leaders about Gingrich's ability to steer a campaign that could focus on his 'personal life'. They're also concerned that Gingrich is not easily docketed as a straightforward Tea Party supporter.

I like the idea of a Gingrich candidacy. He's different, trenchant, original, intelligent and turns the identikit candidate notion on its head. And it really would be good to see someone whose flaws have been so publicised overcome the negative effects of such publicity; it could mark a real turning point in media reportage.

Hat-Tip to Andrew Sullivan's always excellent Daily Dish for the Allahpundit and Kazin links. Now, here's Mitt's smug little video ad -

What the Polls Say

The Sun has a YouGov poll in today's edition which puts the Conservatives a mere 9% ahead of the Labour Party, and also suggests that a change of leader would have only a marginal impact on people's voting intentions (5% according to the poll).

Despite the shenanigans of yesterday, which will soon blow over in any case, the poll, and the electoral arithmetic, suggests that Labour is far from being out of this game, which makes one wonder why on earth anyone in that party thinks raising leadership issues at this time is anything other than the baddest of bad ideas. If you want an indication of just how the polling maths piles up, take a look at this projection on Political Betting. Labour gets the largest number of seats even if it is polling some 6% behind the Conservatives. The current YouGov poll would have the Tories 5 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament, which makes Clegg, despite his protestations, the kingmaker after all. UK Polling Report's swing calculator comes up with the following based on today's figures. Both Tories and, even more, Liberals are seriously under-represented of course, a feature of the current system and boundaries that is already common knowledge. But Clegg could decide to give the Tories a majority in coalition with him, or he could deny them the opportunity by defeating their Bills in alliance with Labour, thus precipitating a likely new election within months. Of course, it is possible that the experience of the SNP in Scotland might be an indicator as well - still in the driving seat despite having to fight each Bill one by one in view of its minority status.

So, an absolute Tory majority is still a massive aspiration for Cameron, who has been lucky in this weeks Hoon affair, given that it has taken the spotlight off his own marriage tax mis-step. Just prior to news of the plot, this had given Gordon Brown new life in his Commons exchanges at PMQs yesterday, which really does beg the question of what an earth the plotters thought they were doing - unless, of course, they are indeed desperate to prevent a Brown victory themselves?!

Swing Calculator

	Conservative			321 seats (+123)
	Labour			261 seats (-95)
	Liberal Democrats			38 seats (-24)
	Others	12%		12 seats (nc)
	Northern Ireland			18 seats (nc)

Blog Round Up on the Great Hoon Non-Plot

The Spectator's Fraser Nelson said that there were German operas which lasted longer than today's Hoon-Hewitt plot to oust Gordon Brown. He was being generous, given that the Ring cycle goes on for rather longer than the plot. But comment on it - well that's another matter entirely. The blogs and online writers have all been leaping into action to comment, presumably preceding the Dead Tree Press's more lofty commentators tomorrow.

The right-wing bloggers are predictably delighted. Iain Dale focuses on the bumbling nature of Geoff Hoon's technical wizardry - apparently the first email he sent to Labour MPs was blank - but otherwise has little comment. The Spectator's Coffee House sees editor Fraser Nelson remark upon the ineptness of the plotters, while his colleague James Forsyth notes the lukewarm nature of David Miliband's support. Tim Montgomerie on Conservative Home meanwhile sees the whole incident - not unreasonably - as a massive boost for the Conservatives. Guido Fawkes prefers to focus on the fact that the BBC's Nick Robinson had earlier said that rumours of a plot were untrue, producing a rather lame video response that is unlikely to give Robinson any sleepless minutes. Robinson himself admits his error, at the end of a blog post where he emphasises the unprecedented nature of the would-be coup so close to an election. But Robinson says any plotters might draw some comfort from the partial parallel of Australian Labour leader Bob Hawke, installed just 25 days before an election which he won.

On the left, meanwhile, there is generally incredulity. Labour List publish a series of hostile emails sent to Hoon and Hewitt from various Labour MPs. 'Skipper' Bill Jones says that the attempted coup has received more raspberries than a summer pudding, provides six reasons why the plot is a bad idea, and then quotes the Guardian's Jonathan Freedland's apposite article today. The New Statesman's Mehdi Hasan attacks the credibility of the plotters, while finally, over at the First Post, 'The Mole' hints at a Mandelsonian involvement - he did, after all, work closely with Hewitt when they were in opposition.

It's been a busy day on the internet!

Labour's Own Little Storm

While the rest of the country was dealing with the snow that always seems to surprise us in winter, with only a few noble, resolute schools opening their doors to the hardy elites, Labour decided to engulf itself in its own little storm. Two former ministers, Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, have written a letter to colleagues urging that the parliamentary Labour party hold a leadership ballot.

This is not the first time that Gordon Brown has faced leadership rumblings since he took over, although, as Nick Robinson points out on his blog, it is unprecedented for such a challenge to be made just weeks away from a likely election. Brown, who secured the leadership unopposed thanks to the strong-arm tactics he had been employing for years beforehand, must be wondering whether it really was worth all the trouble. Even John Major, the Tories' last, troubled premier, managed to win two leadership elections and a General Election. Brown's tactic is to see off such elections before they materialise.

Well, he will probably be able to see off the latest leadership threat too. Neither Hoon nor Hewitt are impressive former ministers, and their letter sounds as if they are twisting in the wind rather than sitting at the heart of a well thought out conspiracy. Neither is it clear what alternative there is to Brown. David Miliband has been found wanting once before, and not he, nor Alan Johnson, nor any of the oft touted next leaders offers such a fresh new dynamic that they could conceivably change Labour's election chances. Labour's best bet remains sticking with its current leader - for all his communicative inadequacies - and getting behind his economic diagnosis. Flitting around looking for the saviour who doesn't exist is pure farce - but then Geoff Hoon, after all, was the man who happily took us into Iraq and behaved with such grace over the David Kelly affair. Not, perhaps, Labour's cutest political strategist.

Another Day of Electioneering

The Tories started today with the environment, and their idea of a supermarkets' "ombudsman" as the big idea to talk about. In fact, despite a promising start on the morning news bulletins and the 'Today' programme, they have gained rather less ground than yesterday, being pushed well behind by the weather - always a British favourite - and security issues in the US and Yemen.

Nick Clegg has managed to generate a few opinions about what his role might be should there be a hung parliament (no-one seems very interested in his actual policies at the moment). The Independent's Steve Richards comments that the Cameron-Brown rivalry, and the possible closeness of the election vote, are working very much in Clegg's favour, without him having to say much at all. However, the Tory blogger Iain Dale takes Clegg to task for a seemingly mealy-mouthed approach on Nicky Campbell's Radio 5 Live programme this morning, so perhaps on the whole it is better for Clegg not to speak at all.

Meanwhile, Peter Mandelson has commented that it would be foolish for Labour to rely upon a 'heartland votes' strategy - seemingly challenging the 'class war' approach recently favoured by Brown which was pursuing just that. Mandelson, true to his New Labour convictions, wants to pursue the middle class vote as vigorously as ever.

And So It Begins

Each election campaign will be the longest one ever, until the entire period of a parliament is simply one long election campaign. That must be the premonition as the parties mark a return to political activity by firing off some of their election material today.

David Cameron has made most of the running, although not entirely smoothly. His decision to major again on the NHS is sensible, and as a long-term strategy has significantly shifted people's perceptions of the Tories and the NHS in the same way that Blair shifted perceptions of Labour and crime with his 'tough on crime' mantra. But Cameron was a little on the defensive about the decision to place himself as the focus of a new poster campaign on the NHS, and encountered a policy problem over marriage. He appeared to back-track on promises of a tax break for marriage in an interview with Nick Robinson, which looks a little less than sure-footed, and is also likely to rile the unreconstructed rightists in his own party, as this blog post from the Spectator's Coffee House already illustrates. They were also less than enthused by his decision to front his campaign with the NHS.

And so it begins.....but before we start to worry about weariness, or electoral apathy by the time of the election, we should remember that this is democracy at work. The charge of weariness with politics is futile, negative and callow, and if we want a healthy democracy we should be ready to show the interest in it that it demands. After all, we have just spent the past year slamming MPs for their inadequacies - now let's really investigate their policies, and try and get a parliament that justifies us.