Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Are the Polls Really Bad News for the Tories?

Recent opinion polls have showed a lowering of the Tory lead to around 7 per cent. As everyone is increasingly aware, the current election system benefits Labour, which means that at 7% ahead, the Tories can only expect a roughly 3 seat lead over Labour - no majority, certainly, and possibly not enough to form any sort of government if Nick Clegg's Liberals side with Labour. At just 5% ahead, the Tories would see Labour emerge as the largest party in terms of seats. So it looks rather gloomy for the Tories. However, seasoned psephologist (poll watcher!) Peter Kellner - who heads up the YouGov polling organisation - has produced a slightly more optimistic forecast for the Conservative Party, based upon the variability factor in marginal seats.

Even if Kellner is right, however, and a 7% lead could bring the Tories a more meaningful 10/11 seat lead, the question must still be raging around Conservative Headquarters. At a time of severe economic recession, with all sorts of brickbats raging around an unloved prime minister, what do they really have to do to get elected with a majority?

3 comments:

Anon.ASPol.Std said...

I'm still waiting for your angry blog post about yet another public apology from our PM concerning something he had absolutely nothing to do with! We all know sorry is the most over-used word, except maybe I love you(quoted from Henry Le Jeune AS Politics '10)

David P said...

But in the seats that will decide the election?

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/24/pbar-poll-has-the-swing-45-pc-bigger-in-the-marginals

Anonymous said...

Maybe Cameron should stop campaigning on an 'age of austerity'. I mean really, I can't think of a worse slogan than that.