Wednesday, March 03, 2010

The London Effect Benefits Cameron

The Evening Standard's YouGov poll has the Tories doing better in London than nationally. Although it reflects the cutting of the Tory lead seen in national polls, there could be some London upsets. The Standard's projection would even have Lib Dem MP Paul Burstow losing to Philippa Stroud in Sutton and Cheam, and Tom Brake losing Carshalton and Wallington. However, as Mike Smithson points out over on Political Betting, the poll doesn't give us a break down of what is happening in the key marginals, and in London as anywhere else, seat specific considerations could defy what is a polling result that is still too close for comfort from the Tories' point of view. Lib Dem MPs work their seats hard, and Burstow in particular is well regarded in Sutton. Meanwhile, Richmond MP Susan Kramer may benefit from the alienation that some voters are feeling against Tory Zac Goldsmith - his non-dom status has not gone down well there.

Locally, then, the Monday debate between Burstow and Stroud could be significant for floating voters. 7pm, at Sutton Grammar School.

No comments: